80 People in Silent Prayer and the Alerts That Sounded in the Same Week

On June 29, 2023, about 80 people gathered at the Kawachi Community Center in Saeki Ward, Hiroshima City. Among them were bereaved families, local residents, and elementary school students from the area. Twenty-seven years ago — on June 29, 1996, heavy rainfall triggered a debris flow that claimed the lives of 32 people in Hiroshima City. A memorial service is held every year on this day. People offer flowers, observe a moment of silence, and say, “We will not forget.” This ritual has been repeated 27 times.

However, this year, another reality loomed behind those standing at the memorial. In the same month of June, Hiroshima Prefecture issued its first Level 4 equivalent alert for sediment-related disasters. In Fukuyama City, an agricultural pond collapsed, flooding nearby homes. On a day meant for remembering, a disaster similar in structure to the past was occurring — raising the question, “What has changed in 27 years?” It is not, “What has changed over 27 years that has made things easier for anyone?”

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Numbers Speak of What Has Changed

Hiroshima Prefecture has the highest number of designated sediment disaster warning areas and special warning areas in the country. According to data released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, as of March 2023, there are approximately 49,000 sediment disaster warning areas in Hiroshima Prefecture, of which about 38,000 are special warning areas. This accounts for about 7% of the total nationwide designation of approximately 690,000 areas.

These numbers reflect Hiroshima’s topography — the structure where slopes of weathered granite, known as “masa-do,” rise sharply behind residential areas. At the same time, they are the result of a system that has evolved in response to repeated disasters, such as the 1999 Hiroshima heavy rain disaster (31 fatalities), the 2014 sediment disasters in Asaminami and Asakita wards (77 fatalities), and the 2018 Western Japan heavy rains (114 fatalities in Hiroshima Prefecture).

The Sediment Disaster Prevention Act was enacted in 2001. A revision in 2014 mandated the publication of basic survey results. The designation of warning areas is also reflected in important information disclosures during real estate transactions. In other words, the information that “this area is dangerous” has gradually opened a circuit that connects internal administrative documents to residents’ decision-making in their daily lives.

Since 2019, a five-level warning system has been introduced. Level 4 means “evacuate everyone from dangerous places.” The issuance of this Level 4 alert for the first time in Hiroshima Prefecture in June of this year is evidence that the system has been “utilized” and that the mechanism is functioning.

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The System Has Functioned. But Has It Reached People?

However, there is still a gap between the existence of a system and its ability to change people’s behavior.

According to a Cabinet Office survey on evacuation awareness (2022), only about 38% of respondents said they would evacuate at Level 4. The percentage of people who answered that they know which warning area their residence falls under is also below half. The system has been established. However, it cannot be said that there is a sufficiently strong circuit connecting the system to individuals as something they take personally.

This year’s pond collapse in Fukuyama City highlighted the weakness of that circuit from another angle. According to a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, of the approximately 150,000 ponds nationwide, about 55,000 are designated as key agricultural ponds for disaster prevention. Hiroshima Prefecture has about 19,000 ponds, the third highest in the country. During the 2018 Western Japan heavy rains, 32 ponds in the prefecture were affected, some of which collapsed. From that lesson, the “Law on the Management and Conservation of Agricultural Ponds” was enacted in 2019, and the creation of reporting systems and hazard maps has been promoted.

However, many of these ponds are agricultural water legacies that date back to the Edo period, and it is not uncommon for their managers to be aging or absent. Reports have been made. Hazard maps have also been created. However, whether that information reaches downstream residents’ “decisions for tonight” — this is where the discrepancy between the design of the system and the reality lies.

Creating a system is akin to erecting the framework of a building. A framework alone cannot keep out the rain. It becomes a “house” only when walls are added, windows are installed, and people inhabit it. Hiroshima’s disaster prevention system is advanced in terms of its framework compared to the rest of the country. The problem lies in the thinness of the intermediate layer that connects the system to residents’ daily lives — the walls and windows.

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Elementary School Students as the “Intermediate Layer” at the Memorial Service

I want to pause for a moment on the fact that local elementary school students participated in the memorial service at the Kawachi Community Center.

Children who do not directly know about the disaster from 27 years ago offered flowers and observed a moment of silence. This act itself may be symbolic. However, something is born from standing in this place. A physical realization that “people once died in the place where I live.” This is a type of information that cannot be conveyed through the color coding of hazard maps.

Since the 2015 fiscal year, Hiroshima City has been promoting the creation of “Hiroshima My Timeline” in all elementary and junior high schools in the city. This initiative encourages students to check the risks around their homes with their families and to plan their actions in a timeline format during disasters. They spread out maps in the classroom to investigate, “Which area is the mountain behind our house?” They ask their parents, “Do you know where the evacuation center is?” Such questions generate conversations about disaster prevention within families.

This is nothing less than the design of an “intermediate layer” that connects the system and residents. The elementary school students standing at the memorial service and those writing timelines in the classroom are the same children. The inheritance of memory and the implementation of the system overlap within the same individuals. It is in that overlap that the significance of 27 years of accumulation lies.

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What Lies Between “Memory” and “System”

Looking back at Hiroshima’s flood history, one can see a certain structure. Each time a disaster occurs, laws are created, areas are designated, and the warning system is updated. 1996, 1999, 2014, 2018 — each year corresponds to a specific system revision. Japan’s disaster prevention administration has built its framework upon the sacrifices made. No one denies this fact.

However, the system exists to “reduce the next sacrifice.” Whether it has succeeded in doing so is measured not by the existence of the system but by what happens at the other end of the system.

Fortunately, there have been no reported human casualties from this year’s pond collapse. Even when the Level 4 alert was issued, significant damage did not occur. Whether to view the outcome of “no damage occurred” as evidence that the system functioned or merely as a stroke of luck — that judgment will be determined by what preparations are made before the next rain falls.

Hiroshima Prefecture’s future challenges can be broadly categorized into three areas.

First, ensuring the effectiveness of the management system for agricultural ponds. This requires direct administrative involvement in ponds without managers, rather than merely the formal operation of the reporting system, and the provision of regular risk information to downstream residents.

Second, connecting warning levels with resident actions. How to dissolve the wall between those who know that Level 4 means “evacuate everyone” and those who know but do not act. This requires not only the technology of information transmission but also the thickness of human networks, such as encouraging voices within community networks and identifying vulnerable individuals.

Third, connecting the inheritance of memory with the system. The memorial service serves as a place to “not forget” while also being a starting point for “preparing for the next time.” A conscious design that connects these two functions will be required in future memorials.

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Questions After 27 Years

The children of Hiroshima today do not know the names of the 32 people who died in the 1996 debris flow. This is natural. However, these children live within the system that those 32 lives helped to create. The delineation of warning areas, the classification of alert levels, and the existence of memorial services — all of these are part of a chain of systems that began with the rain on that day.

The system is a device that transforms memory into a framework. However, memory cannot be conveyed through the system alone. If memory is not conveyed, the system becomes a mere shell. To prevent that cycle from stopping, 80 people gather every year on June 29, offering flowers and observing a moment of silence.

One day, the elementary school students lined up at the Kawachi Community Center may become parents themselves and tell their children about “what happened in this place.” At that time, whether there is trust in the system within the words spoken — that will be the answer to the questions accumulated over 27 years.