Three Overlapping Judgments This Spring: Questions to Ask

Hiroshima’s mayor is gearing up for a fifth term, the prefectural assembly has decided to maintain the current number of council members at 64, and for the first time, the highway toll system is set to be reviewed—this spring, three judgments concerning Hiroshima’s politics and infrastructure have emerged almost simultaneously.

While these discussions are progressing in different contexts, stepping back reveals a common question: “Who is benefiting from this system now?” Continuing, not changing, and changing for the first time. When these three attitudes are laid out, it becomes clearer how far the institutional design of the city of Hiroshima connects to the lives of its citizens.

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Mayor Matsui: The Weight of the Term “Culmination”

Kazumi Matsui, the mayor of Hiroshima, has officially announced his candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election. If elected, this will mark his fifth term—bringing his total time in office to nearly 20 years. At a press conference, Mayor Matsui stated, “I want to culminate the city administration up to this point.”

The term “culmination” has two directions. One is the meaning of bringing the policies developed over time closer to completion. The other carries the connotation of drawing a line here. It remains to be seen which meaning Mayor Matsui intended, as we await future policy announcements. However, it is a fact that his 16 years in office have yielded certain results.

Under Matsui’s administration, Hiroshima City has achieved the redevelopment of the area around the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park and the construction of the soccer stadium “Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima,” while redevelopment of the south exit of Hiroshima Station is also underway. With the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing approaching in 2024, Hiroshima has elevated its brand as an international city of peace and culture, bolstered by its role as the host city for the G7 Hiroshima Summit.

However, long-term administrations also come with structural risks. The prioritization of policies can become fixed, dulling sensitivity to new challenges—such as concrete measures for population decline, the outflow of young people from the city, and disparities with rural areas. If “culmination” remains merely an extension of the past, the power to update the system must come from elsewhere.

To put the question more concretely: Will the system that Mayor Matsui aims to complete in his fifth term continue to function under the next mayor? Is it a structure dependent on personal leadership, or is it designed to operate independently as an institution? For citizens, the latter is what truly matters.

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Council Members Maintained at 64—The Substance of the Decision to “Not Change”

The Hiroshima Prefectural Assembly has solidified its policy to maintain the current number of council members at 64 for the upcoming prefectural election. There are also plans to avoid significant changes to the electoral district divisions.

At first glance, this may seem like a story of “nothing has changed.” However, the decision to not change also carries intent. The question is, where is that intent directed?

According to the 2020 national census, Hiroshima Prefecture has a population of approximately 2.8 million, which has decreased by about 20,000 since 2015, and the trend of decline is accelerating. Particularly in the northern and island regions of the prefecture, areas with an aging rate exceeding 40% are not uncommon. Maintaining the number of council members despite a declining population and changing distribution of voters means that the current disparities in voting power will be preserved.

Reducing the number of council members is not necessarily the correct answer. If the number of representatives is reduced, some voices may go unheard. Especially if representation from depopulated areas is lost, the issues of those regions may struggle to make it onto the assembly’s agenda. Therefore, if the decision is to maintain the current number, there should be a clear rationale presented to citizens—such as, “This number is necessary to continue capturing the voices of the small and marginalized.”

During the decision-making process, it is worth questioning whether such explanations were sufficiently provided. From the reports, it seems that discussions primarily revolved around adjustments between factions, with limited opportunities for public explanation. It is concerning that the dialogue supporting the decision to maintain the system is lacking, rather than the decision itself.

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Highway Toll Review—What the First-Time Review Asks

The Hiroshima Expressway Public Corporation is considering its first-ever review of the toll system since its opening. Currently, tolls are individually set for each route, resulting in differing per-distance charges depending on the section. For example, on the Hiroshima Expressway Line 1 (Aki-Fuchu Road) and Line 4 (Hiroshima Nishi-Kaze New Town Line), there can be a difference of several hundred yen even for similar distances, leading users to voice concerns about unfairness, stating, “It’s the same highway, so why is there a price difference?”

The background of this price difference lies in the varying construction costs and opening dates of each route. The toll system is designed to recover costs for each route, meaning that sections with higher construction costs will have higher tolls. While this is rational from a structural perspective, users naturally question, “Why are the prices different when it’s the same road?”

The direction being considered for the review is a shift to a distance-based system. By calculating tolls based on the distance traveled, at least the sense of unfairness—”I traveled the same distance but paid different tolls”—would be eliminated. However, transitioning to a distance-based system may lighten the burden for short-distance users while increasing it for long-distance users. The impact on logistics companies and citizens commuting long distances must be carefully simulated.

What is noteworthy is the fact that this review is the “first” of its kind. About 20 years have passed since the opening of Line 1. The fact that the toll system has not been updated in 20 years raises questions: Has no one checked the system’s durability, or has it been assessed and deemed that “it doesn’t need to change yet”? In either case, the cycle of institutional review itself is being called into question.

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The Structure Connecting the Three Judgments—”Continue,” “Not Change,” “Change for the First Time”

Mayor Matsui’s candidacy for a fifth term represents the judgment to “continue.” The decision to maintain the number of council members at 64 reflects the judgment to “not change.” The review of highway tolls signifies the judgment to “change for the first time.” While the attitudes differ, what unites all three is that they are choices regarding the timing of system updates.

Systems have a lifespan. When the premises at the time of institutional design—population composition, economic environment, and citizens’ daily movements—change, the effectiveness of the system also changes. What is crucial is not simply a binary choice of whether to change or not, but whether a circuit for regularly verifying “who this system is functioning for now” is embedded within the institution.

If Mayor Matsui’s “culmination” includes such a verification circuit in its design, then it will hold significance in his fifth term. If maintaining the number of council members is a decision made to protect the voices of depopulated areas, then it represents a positive value in “not changing.” If the review of highway tolls is a rational redesign based on actual user data, then it is never too late for an update after 20 years.

Conversely, if continuing is merely inertia, if not changing is procrastination, and if changing is merely a pose, then no matter how much is said, it will not reach the lives of citizens.

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Points to Watch Going Forward—Looking at the “Back Side” of the System

In the future, I would like to focus on the following three points.

First, the policy framework for Mayor Matsui’s fifth term. How the contents of the “culmination” are specifically demonstrated will be a measure of the quality of a long-term administration, particularly whether it includes a design for transitioning to the next mayor.

Second, the disclosure of the rationale for maintaining the number of council members. How far the rational explanation for maintaining the number 64 reaches outside the assembly—specifically to the citizens. If the ideology behind the numbers is not shared, the maintenance will appear as mere confirmation of the status quo.

Third, the process of reviewing highway tolls. Whether not only the conclusion but also the data used in the deliberation process and whose opinions were reflected will be made public. If the design philosophy behind the toll numbers is visualized, it could influence discussions about other infrastructure fees.

Institutions begin to age the moment they are created. That is why it is necessary to embed the mechanism for updates within the institution itself. The three judgments made in Hiroshima this spring serve as a quiet yet significant litmus test for how far this embedding has been achieved.

When we focus on who supports what behind the scenes of the system, we can catch a glimpse of the next contours of this city.