Why is Hiroshima City’s ‘Attraction’ Weakening? Worst Outflow, Lackluster Premium Coupons, and the Fifth Highest Population Decline Nationwide

People are quietly leaving Hiroshima City.

According to the population movement report based on the Basic Resident Register released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in January 2024, Hiroshima Prefecture recorded an outflow of 4,670 people, ranking seventh worst in the nation. Among these, Hiroshima City has been placed fifth nationwide in terms of population decline. Meanwhile, Hatsukaichi City, located about 30 minutes away by car, has seen an influx of residents for 11 consecutive years—despite being part of the same Hiroshima metropolitan area, the flow of people is moving in the opposite direction.

This contrast highlights a structural issue where “the scale of the city” and “the mechanisms of livability” do not necessarily align. Despite Hiroshima City’s overwhelming tourism resources and cultural assets, why has it become less favored as a “place to live”? We will unravel the discrepancies behind the numbers, one by one.

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The Outline of Outflow as Told by the Numbers

As of the 2020 national census, Hiroshima City’s population was approximately 1.199 million. Despite being the largest city in the Chugoku and Shikoku regions as a designated city, its demographic trends have been on a downward slope in recent years.

Of the total outflow of 4,670 people from Hiroshima Prefecture, a significant portion comes from Hiroshima City. Notably, the breakdown of destinations for those leaving is worth attention. While there is indeed outflow to the Tokyo metropolitan area, there is also a considerable number of people moving to neighboring cities within the prefecture—Hatsukaichi City, Higashihiroshima City, and Fuchu Town in Aki County. This indicates that people are not necessarily leaving the “region” of Hiroshima but rather the “administrative district” of Hiroshima City itself.

This distinction is important. While jobs may be located within Hiroshima City, individuals are choosing to live in neighboring towns. As a result of weighing “quality of life” within the commuting zone, Hiroshima City is losing out—this structure becomes apparent.

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The ‘Inaccessibility’ Reflected in Premium Coupons

Alongside the population discussion, there is another concerning figure: the application status for the premium coupons issued by Hiroshima City.

To revitalize the local economy, Hiroshima City implemented a premium coupon program with a 25% premium rate. For every 10,000 yen spent, residents could receive 12,500 yen worth of shopping. The total issuance was approximately 2 billion yen. However, the number of applicants fell significantly short of initial expectations, reaching only about half of the target. The city has since announced an extension of the application period.

People are not reaching for the “beneficial coupons.” How should we interpret this fact?

It could simply be dismissed as “a decline in citizens’ purchasing motivation.” However, a deeper look reveals a different perspective. Issues such as the complexity of digital application procedures, the uneven distribution of participating stores, and the incompatibility of the coupon format with everyday shopping routes have been pointed out as problems in the “points of contact” within the system.

The issue does not lie with the program itself, but rather with the design of how it is delivered, which is misaligned with the realities of residents’ lives. This is likely not limited to just the coupons. A similar type of “inaccessibility” seems to underlie the background of the outflow.

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Reasons for Choosing Hatsukaichi City—Granularity of the Mechanism

In contrast, the figures for Hatsukaichi City are bright. This town, with a population of about 114,000, has maintained an influx of residents for 11 consecutive years since 2013.

According to data published by Hatsukaichi City, approximately 60% of newcomers are families with children. While it has the tourism resource of Miyajima, the reasons for being chosen as a place to live are more modest and specific.

The number of children waiting for daycare is almost zero. After-school child care clubs are established in each elementary school district, and a system of community volunteers participating in monitoring activities has become established. Additionally, two railway lines, the JR Sanyo Main Line and the Hiroshima Electric Railway Miyajima Line, support access to Hiroshima City center, with commuting times within 30 to 40 minutes. The choice of “working in Hiroshima City and living in Hatsukaichi City” becomes a feasible option.

What is noteworthy here is that Hatsukaichi City’s policies are not about “big flagship projects” but rather a “cumulative build-up of mechanisms tailored to the granularity of daily life.” Childcare, education, transportation, and community—each initiative may seem modest, but when they come together, the judgment that “this is a place where I can raise my children” emerges. It is not the flashiness of individual policies but the interconnectedness of the mechanisms that builds trust.

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What Hiroshima City Lacks is Not ‘Attractiveness’ but ‘Connection’

Hiroshima City has plenty of reasons to visit, including the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park, Hiroshima Castle, MAZDA Zoom-Zoom Stadium, oysters, and okonomiyaki. Its scale as a city and cultural depth are unmatched in the Chugoku and Shikoku regions.

However, “a city you want to visit” and “a city you want to continue living in” cannot be measured on the same axis.

When we organize the challenges facing Hiroshima City, several structural points become apparent.

First, the “invisibility” of childcare support. While Hiroshima City is advancing the development of daycare centers and establishing child-rearing support centers, the city is divided into eight administrative districts, which can lead to the dispersion of information. Voices expressing that “it is difficult to intuitively grasp where things are” often appear in surveys of those who have left.

Second, the issue of housing costs. The prices of condominiums in central Hiroshima City are on the rise, with the average price of newly built condominiums reaching the late 40 million yen range. If it is possible to find properties that are nearly 10 million yen cheaper in neighboring Hatsukaichi City or Higashihiroshima City within the same commuting zone, the decision for younger generations becomes clear.

Third, the weakness of the “points of connection” between policies and residents. As symbolized by the lackluster performance of the premium coupons, there are systems in place that are not reaching people, and the methods of delivery do not align with daily life routes—this “absence of connection” emerges as a common issue across various policies in Hiroshima City.

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‘Attraction’ Resides in the Mechanism

What is the attraction of a city? It is not created solely by glamorous landmarks or large-scale events.

In the morning, there is a place to drop off children. In the evening, work can be finished in time to pick them up. On weekends, there is a park within walking distance. When in trouble, there is a clear point of contact for consultation—when these small daily “assurances” accumulate, people put down roots in that place.

Hatsukaichi City’s 11 consecutive years of net inflow is not the result of flashy attraction strategies. It is the accumulation of time spent carefully organizing the mechanisms of daily life. What is likely required of Hiroshima City is the same type of work—improving the “accuracy” of delivery rather than the “quantity” of policies. Filling in the gaps between systems and daily life, one by one.

Governor Hidehiko Yuzaki’s slogan of “creating a region that attracts people” is indeed heading in the right direction as a slogan for the entire prefecture. However, the circuits through which the slogan reaches the field—the collaboration between the prefecture and the city, understanding the realities of each administrative district, and the methods of delivering information to residents—are the aspects that are currently most in question.

The numbers reflecting outflow are indeed a result of Hiroshima City being “not chosen,” but at the same time, they serve as a map indicating “where improvements can be made.”

When people feel that the mechanisms are reaching their lives, they begin to call that place “their city.”