Three Clocks Moving Simultaneously

On the map of Hiroshima, three construction projects are currently progressing at different speeds.

The maximum speed of the Hiroshima Electric Railway tram has been raised from 40 km/h to 50 km/h—an increase not seen in 72 years. The completion of the JR East Continuous Elevated Crossing Project is now scheduled for fiscal year 2048—10 years behind the original plan, with project costs expected to balloon to approximately 168.5 billion yen, about 1.8 times the initial estimate. Meanwhile, the new arena concept is beginning to take shape at the north exit of Hiroshima Station.

All of these projects are supposed to intersect at the point of “redrawing the flow around Hiroshima Station.” However, the hands of each clock are surprisingly out of sync. Some are moving quickly, others are delayed, and some are still taking shape—amid this time lag, the contours of those who will benefit and those who will be left behind are gradually becoming clearer.

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The Reason for the Change in Speed After 72 Years

The fact that the Hiroshima Electric Railway tram can now run at a maximum speed of 50 km/h is not just about speeding up. What is noteworthy is the question, “Why has it remained at 40 km/h for 72 years?”

The maximum speed of trams has been limited by a ministerial ordinance under the Railway Construction Act. Since trams run on roads, coexistence with cars and pedestrians was a prerequisite, and the decision to limit speed for safety reasons was rational. However, with the revision in 2024, an increase to 50 km/h is permitted if certain conditions, such as safety equipment and track conditions, are met. In response to this regulatory change, Hiroshima Electric Railway has been working on the necessary improvements to make this a reality.

The figure of 72 years indicates that the issue was not technical but regulatory. The performance of the vehicles has long exceeded 50 km/h. What has changed is not the trains but the system.

So, what does this 10 km/h difference mean for passengers? If the speed is raised from 40 km/h to 50 km/h on certain sections of the Miyajima Line, the travel time would be reduced by about 20% in simple calculations. A difference of a few minutes—while it may seem trivial—can translate into tens of hours over the course of a year for those who commute daily. “A little faster” accumulates to change the quality of life itself. The significance lies in the structure where changes in the system are reflected in individuals’ time.

Moreover, this speed increase is not unrelated to the trends in land prices around Hiroshima Station. In the 2024 public land price announcement, commercial land prices around Hiroshima Station rose by 15.9% compared to the previous year. While the impact of the station building reconstruction and surrounding redevelopment is significant, it is also important to note that the improvement in tram access is enhancing the “rationale for living and working near the station.” As transportation speeds up, the value of the areas along the line increases. When value increases, investment follows. At the starting point of this cycle is the regulatory change after 72 years.

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The 10-Year Delay in Elevation—Who is Waiting, and Who Cannot Wait?

The JR East Continuous Elevated Crossing Project is a large-scale initiative to elevate the conventional lines east of Hiroshima Station and eliminate multiple level crossings. The stated goals—eliminating traffic congestion caused by level crossings, alleviating the division of the city between north and south, and promoting urban development along the line—are all pressing issues.

However, the project is significantly delayed. The completion date has shifted from the originally planned late 2030s to fiscal year 2048, a delay of 10 years, with project costs expected to increase from approximately 93 billion yen to 168.5 billion yen, an increase of about 80%. The reasons for the delay are complex, including rising material costs, labor shortages, and dealing with underground obstacles—none of which can be singled out as the sole culprit.

But imagine the landscape behind the numbers.

In areas where level crossings remain, traffic queues lengthen every time the barriers go down during rush hours. There are also concerns about delayed emergency vehicle arrivals. Some residents have made decisions to buy or relocate businesses based on the premise that “level crossings will be eliminated by the 2030s.” For those who made life decisions based on this expectation, a 10-year delay is not just a schedule change; it forces a complete rewrite of their life plans.

On the other hand, on the west side of Hiroshima Station—in the Kamiyacho and Hatchobori areas—improvements to pedestrian decks and the completion of redevelopment buildings are already underway, and the reorganization of pedestrian flows is taking shape. The clocks of the city are moving at different speeds on either side of the station. How this temperature difference will reflect on land prices and demographic trends is crucial. To prevent the narrative of eastern residents feeling “left behind” from becoming entrenched, there is a need for not only progress management of the project but also interim traffic improvement measures during the delay period—such as staggered control of level crossing signals and the development of detours.

Regarding the figure of 168.5 billion yen, it is also necessary to break it down calmly. The funding for the continuous elevated crossing project is a combination of national, prefectural, and municipal funds, with JR also bearing part of the costs as a beneficiary. How the increased project costs will be absorbed by each entity and the design of that distribution inherently involves political decisions. While it is easy to criticize the rising costs, the more pertinent question is, “Who will bear those costs, through what mechanisms, and who will benefit from the completed project?”

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Is the Arena a “Point” or a “Nexus”?

The new arena being planned at the north exit of Hiroshima Station is envisioned as a large-scale facility for multi-purpose use, including sports events, concerts, and conventions. Hiroshima already has the Hiroshima Green Arena (Hiroshima Prefectural Gymnasium), but limitations in capacity and facilities have been pointed out, and the new arena is positioned to complement and update it.

Whether the arena concept is viewed as “a mere structure” or “a nexus of flows” can dramatically change its evaluation.

Despite being a high-traffic area for passengers arriving and departing from the shinkansen, the commercial concentration at the north exit is sparse compared to the south exit. The presence of the arena is expected to generate a flow of several thousand to ten thousand people on event days. If food, lodging, and retail are positioned along this flow, the overall accessibility of the north exit area will change. In other words, the focus is not solely on the profitability of the arena itself but on its function as a “device that generates human flow.”

However, there are prerequisites for this concept to function. Improvements in access to the north exit via the Hiroshima Electric Railway’s Ekimae Ohashi route and the continuity of pedestrian flows north and south due to the JR elevation—only when these conditions are met can the arena become a “nexus” rather than just a “point.” Conversely, if the new tram route opens first and the JR elevation is delayed until 2048, the arena will stand on only one leg.

This is where the inherent risks of the time differences among the three projects lie.

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The Redesign of Flows is Measured by “Who Benefits”

When the three projects are lined up, what becomes visible is the structure of “changes at different speeds occurring simultaneously in the same city.”

The speed increase of the tram is an example of how a change in the system through regulatory reform has been relatively quickly reflected in citizens’ travel times. The JR elevation, while correct as a system, is becoming misaligned with the lives of residents along the line due to the long time until realization. The arena concept is in the design stage of the system, and its value will be determined by how it interacts with the other two.

All three projects claim the noble cause of “improving the flows in Hiroshima.” However, flows are not abstract lines. In the morning, there are people waiting at traffic signals in front of level crossings. In the evening, there are those who can pick up their children thanks to a few minutes saved on the tram. On weekends, the flow of people heading to the arena may either stop by the north exit shopping district or pass through without stopping.

Whether the redesign of flows is truly functioning is measured not by the lines on a map but by the expressions of the people walking along those lines.

The figure indicating a 15.9% rise in land prices around Hiroshima Station may be good news for investors. However, if that increase leads to higher property tax burdens for existing residents and forces long-established businesses to relocate, the question of “Whose flow is it for?” becomes even more pressing.

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What to Watch Going Forward

There are three key points to pay attention to in the future.

First, how the funding scheme for the increased costs of the JR East Continuous Elevated Crossing Project is resolved. Changes in the burden ratios among the national, prefectural, municipal, and JR levels will have ripple effects on the budget allocations for other public projects.

Second, the passenger data after the opening of the Hiroshima Electric Railway’s Ekimae Ohashi route. How much the new tram route changes the flow of people toward the north exit will influence the feasibility of the arena concept.

Third, the trends in land prices and demographic changes in the eastern areas along the line. As the completion of the elevation is delayed until 2048, how the “waiting time” for residents along the line will affect the vitality of the city. Here lies a question of urban sustainability that transcends the success or failure of the projects.

The three clocks will continue to move at their respective speeds. What is important is to keep seeing the figures of those left behind between the hands of those clocks, beyond the numbers.