7500 Daily Commuters Still Lack Transportation

When a semiconductor manufacturing hub is announced, many people focus on the scale of the factory and its economic ripple effects. However, it is essential to pause and consider another question: How will the 7500 people commuting to that factory every day get there?

Micron Technology, a major American semiconductor company, is investing approximately ¥1.5 trillion to expand its cutting-edge DRAM factory in Higashi-Hiroshima City, Hiroshima Prefecture. With support from the Japanese government providing up to ¥192 billion in subsidies, the factory aims to become a mass production site for next-generation memory using EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography technology, with full-scale operations expected to commence after 2025. The job creation effect is estimated to be in the thousands, both directly and indirectly, raising significant expectations for the local economy.

However, the operation of a factory means that people need to move. The challenge of transporting up to 7500 employees daily is quietly but surely looming behind this number. Geiyo Bus, responsible for the transportation, needs to secure between 60 and 90 new drivers. Given that bus operators nationwide are struggling with a shortage of drivers, this number is far from insignificant.

In the same Hiroshima Prefecture, a demonstration operation of small buses has begun in the southern Delta area of Hiroshima City. This route connects Nishihiroshima Station and Miyuki Bridge, serving as a lifeline for nearby high schools and hospitals. The contrast between the massive factory shuttle buses and the small city buses is stark. Yet, both cannot operate without “people to keep them moving”—highlighting a shared structural issue.

Where Will the 90 Drivers Come From?

Higashi-Hiroshima City, where Micron’s new factory is located, has developed into a university town since the integrated relocation of Hiroshima University (1982-1995). The population is about 190,000. While residential areas spread around Saijo Station on the JR Sanyo Line, public transportation to the area where the factory is being built is limited. Private cars are the primary means of transportation, and the expansion of the factory will directly lead to increased traffic congestion on surrounding roads. Therefore, establishing a bus transportation system capable of mass transit is essential.

Geiyo Bus aims to secure 60 to 90 drivers. To understand the significance of this number, one must look at the overall situation in the industry. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio for bus drivers far exceeds the average for all occupations, indicating a chronic labor shortage. The 2024 issue—where regulations on overtime for truck and bus drivers will be applied—means that the working hours for each driver will be reduced, necessitating more personnel to maintain the same routes.

In other words, Geiyo Bus must achieve the recruitment of dozens of drivers in a short period amid a nationwide trend of driver shortages. While improving working conditions is a given, questions arise about whether they can also provide housing allowances, enhance family living conditions, and establish training systems—essentially, whether they can create the necessary “surrounding structures” to attract individuals. The construction schedule for the factory will not wait. Even if the building is completed, people cannot come without transportation.

Another aspect that cannot be overlooked is the impact on existing routes. Geiyo Bus also operates local routes within Higashi-Hiroshima City. Will the newly hired drivers be dedicated to the shuttle service, or will they also be assigned to existing routes? If the demand for shuttles siphons off drivers from existing routes, the daily transportation options for local residents will diminish. No one wants to see the town’s transportation options reduced for the sake of the factory.

Small Buses Begin Operations in Hiroshima City’s Southern Delta

Shifting the focus to Hiroshima City, a demonstration operation of small buses began on October 1, 2024, in the southern Delta area. This route, connecting Nishihiroshima Station and Miyuki Bridge, aims to make economically unviable sections feasible by deploying smaller vehicles.

The route serves high schools and hospitals, making it a visible line for users. Unlike the large shuttle buses that transport “7500 people a day,” this route may not generate such figures. However, if even one trip is canceled, there will be students who can no longer attend school, and elderly patients who may give up on their medical appointments. This is the nature of a lifeline route.

The introduction of small vehicles could change the workload for each driver. If the vehicle classification allows operation without a large bus license, the pool of potential drivers could widen. However, the demonstration operation is just that—a demonstration. If the number of users falls below a certain threshold, it will not transition to full operation. The route’s survival relies solely on residents’ willingness to “ride.”

Here, a contrast with the Higashi-Hiroshima shuttle buses emerges. Micron’s shuttle service is supported by corporate investment and demand. The funding source is clear, and the riders are confirmed. In contrast, lifeline routes rely on public subsidies and the actual usage by residents. The funding source is unstable, and the number of riders fluctuates daily. Even though both involve the act of “running a bus,” the structures supporting them are entirely different.

Who Designs the “Transportation System”?

When comparing these two phenomena, a common question arises.

In Higashi-Hiroshima, a massive demand has been confirmed first, and supply (drivers, vehicles, routes) is being rapidly assembled to meet it. In Hiroshima City’s southern Delta, supply (demonstration routes) is being tested first to determine whether there is latent demand. While the directions are opposite, both are attempting to design a “transportation system” from scratch.

Moreover, in both designs, the human element—”drivers”—is the bottleneck.

This structure is not limited to Higashi-Hiroshima and Hiroshima City. The attraction of semiconductor factories has created similar transportation challenges with TSMC’s expansion into Kumamoto (Kikuyo Town), where traffic congestion and public transport strain have been reported. The same issues may emerge in Chitose City, Hokkaido, where Rapidus is expanding. If the government is pursuing semiconductor factory attraction as a national policy, shouldn’t “transportation for the factories” also be included in the national policy scope?

The economic effects of factory attraction are often easily articulated in numbers: ¥1.5 trillion in investment, ¥192 billion in subsidies, and thousands of jobs. However, when those thousands of people board buses every morning, if there are no drivers to hold the steering wheel, those numbers will not translate into reality. Improving working conditions, supporting license acquisition, and considering the introduction of autonomous driving technology—there are multiple means, but first, a clear division of roles is needed: who will bear the costs, who will establish the systems, and who will operate them on-site.

The Daily Bus Service Shapes the Town

The arrival of a factory changes a town. Tax revenues increase, commercial facilities emerge, and the population flows in. This indeed represents a significant change. However, whether that change takes root in the community is determined in more understated ways.

Will the 7 AM bus arrive on time? Will the late-night service carrying employees after night shifts be maintained? Is there a final bus that high school students can catch after club activities?

The Micron shuttle bus in Higashi-Hiroshima and the small bus in Hiroshima City’s southern Delta differ in scale, purpose, and funding structure. Yet, both serve as the foundation for the activities of “people living, working, and commuting.”

Amid the spotlight on the ¥1.5 trillion investment, what is quietly being questioned is the livelihood of the 60 to 90 drivers and the sustainability of the small bus routes running a few times a day. Whether it is turning the gears of a massive economy or supporting daily life, it ultimately rests in the hands that hold the same steering wheel.