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Bears Descend into Residential Areas, Schools Close, and High Schools Consolidate from 18 to 7 — What Happens in ‘Places Where People Have Withdrawn’

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In the Saeki Ward of Hiroshima City, a bear has been spotted. It was very close to a residential area. As a result, 11 nearby elementary and junior high schools have temporarily closed — a decision made out of concern that a bear might be on the route to school for children.

In the same Hiroshima Prefecture, a draft proposal has been published to consolidate 18 prefectural high schools into 7. Discussions are ongoing regarding whether to maintain the JR Geibi Line or convert it to a bus service in certain sections of the line.

These are reported as separate news items. However, when viewed from a broader perspective, a single structure emerges. In places where people have withdrawn, the systems that once existed are gradually transforming — this is a record of that process.

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The Boundaries are Shifting

According to the preliminary results of the 2025 national census, Hiroshima Prefecture has a population of approximately 2.68 million, a decrease of 4.2% from the previous count. Even Hiroshima City has seen a population decline for the first time in 78 years. This is not just a provincial issue; it is happening in the prefectural capital.

Saeki Ward is located in the western part of Hiroshima City, characterized by a landscape where urban areas and mountains are adjacent. The mountains are immediately behind the residential areas. In the past, there was a human presence at that boundary — sounds of daily life, traffic, and the sight of people working in fields — which created an invisible barrier for animals, signaling “this is the realm of humans.”

According to data from the Ministry of the Environment, the number of sightings of Asian black bears is on the rise nationwide. In the fiscal year 2023, human injuries caused by bears reached an all-time high. Contributing factors include poor food conditions in the mountains, such as a lack of beech and oak acorns. However, this alone does not explain why bears are coming down to areas so close to residential neighborhoods.

As vacant houses increase, abandoned farmland spreads, and human density decreases, these areas become a buffer zone between the mountains and the city. When people withdraw, that buffer zone disappears. To bears, it may appear that the mountains extend directly into the backyards of residential areas.

The 11 schools that closed temporarily made the right decision. The safety of children is the top priority. However, it is worth pausing to consider not just the decision to close schools but the structure that has created the situation necessitating such closures.

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The Implications of Consolidating 18 Schools into 7

The draft proposal for the reorganization of prefectural high schools presented by the Hiroshima Prefectural Board of Education aims to consolidate 18 schools into 7. While it is referred to as “integration” rather than “reduction,” the fact remains that 11 schools will physically disappear.

Looking at the numbers, the population of 15-year-olds in Hiroshima Prefecture was approximately 32,000 in 2005, but is projected to drop to about 23,000 by 2025. This is a nearly 30% decrease over 20 years. If the number of students per grade falls below a certain threshold, it becomes difficult to allocate teachers for each subject, leading to the inability to offer elective courses and maintain extracurricular activities. The logic of “integrating to maintain the quality of education” is coherent as a system.

The problem lies outside that system.

High schools are not merely educational facilities for the community. Gymnasiums serve as local evacuation centers, playgrounds are used for community events, and alumni return for cultural festivals. The presence of a high school supports the existence of boarding houses, dining establishments, and stationery stores in the vicinity, and it provides a reason to maintain bus routes. The disappearance of a single school means that multiple thin threads woven around it are cut simultaneously.

There are plans for the new school after consolidation to have a campus in the suburbs. This will increase commuting distances and reliance on school buses and public transportation. Here, another piece of news connects.

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What the Railway is Questioning

On the JR Geibi Line, between Bingo-Shohara and Bichu-Kamiyama, discussions are underway regarding the future of this section, which includes areas with an average daily passenger count of just a few dozen. In materials presented to the national restructuring council at the end of 2024, a comparison of annual deficits if the railway is maintained versus the costs of converting to a bus service has been provided. A draft outline is expected to be presented in November.

The future of the railway is often discussed along the axes of “number of users” and “cost.” This is correct. Public transportation is not a charity; it must be a sustainable system. However, once again, I want to direct attention to the “outside of the system.”

In villages with a railway station versus those without, the range of activities for residents changes. Can the elderly get to medical appointments? Can high school students commute to school? Whether a bus service can provide “equivalent service” must be verified not only by frequency and routes but also by factors such as transfers, waiting environments, and winter operational stability.

If the railway is abolished, shops in front of the station will close, the flow of people will change, and the center of the village will shift. This is structurally similar to the shifting boundary that allows bears to descend.

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To Call it ‘Reallocation’ Rather than ‘Withdrawal’

When laying out all these stories, it may seem like there is only a dark future ahead. However, I would like to shift the perspective slightly.

In response to the bear sightings, Hiroshima City quickly decided to close schools and established a patrol system in collaboration with hunting associations. The draft proposal for high school consolidation is being discussed with residents through explanatory meetings and soliciting opinions. In the Geibi Line discussions, local governments along the line, JR West Japan, and the national government are all sitting at the same table.

In each case, they are not addressing issues reactively after they arise; rather, they are attempting to reorganize the system based on the premise that “the population is decreasing.” This process is subtle, painful, and for some, it signifies a loss of something from their town. Nonetheless, the mere existence of dialogue provides a glimmer of hope.

What is crucial is to ensure that this does not end in “withdrawal.” If schools are to be reduced, what functions will be consolidated in the remaining schools? If railways are to be replaced with buses, how will the roles that buses cannot fulfill — such as transportation capacity during disasters or the value of routes as tourist resources — be compensated? If boundaries are shifting, where will the new boundaries be drawn?

The question is whether there is a design that can be called “reallocation.” That is what is being asked.

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Points of Future Attention

• Outline of the Geibi Line (Scheduled for November 2025): A specific direction will be indicated on whether to maintain the railway or convert to a bus service. Attention should be paid not only to cost comparisons but also to how the daily lives of residents along the line will change.
• Final Proposal for Consolidation of Prefectural High Schools: How much resident feedback will be reflected in the draft proposal? The focus will be on what functions the new school will have as a community hub after consolidation.
• Medium to Long-term Response to Bear Sightings: Rather than one-off culling or patrols, will there be discussions on redesigning buffer zones — such as managing abandoned farmland and maintaining satoyama as buffer zones?

The decrease in population cannot be stopped. However, how to redesign the places where the population has decreased is still undecided. In the residential areas where bears have descended, in classrooms with fewer students, and on platforms with sparse passengers — there are people trying to redraw the systems in each of these places. I want to continue observing their efforts.