Giant Ships Vanish Overnight: The Full Picture—and Impact—of Chinese Cruises Canceling Japan Port Calls

On December 2, 2025, shockwaves ran through Japan’s port cities and tourism industry. Reports emerged that Adora Cruises, a Chinese state-backed cruise company, abruptly scrapped its planned port calls in Japan scheduled from December 2025 through January 2026, rerouting instead to South Korea and Southeast Asia. This decision has been received not as a simple corporate scheduling adjustment, but as a symbolic event in which geopolitical risk in Japan’s inbound market became visibly real.

The first signs appeared in unexpected changes to port-call schedules at major Kyushu ports such as Nagasaki, Fukuoka, and Sasebo. Adora’s 130,000-ton-class mega-ship Adora Magic City canceled its Japan calls and switched to an itinerary featuring an unusually long 57-hour stay on South Korea’s Jeju Island. Another flagship vessel, Adora Mediterranea, also canceled planned calls at Ishigaki and Miyako in Okinawa, shifting course toward Vietnam’s Da Nang and Ha Long Bay.

According to reporting, Adora Cruises solidified a policy of canceling all Japan calls in the first quarter of 2026 (January–March). It has also been confirmed that reservations from mid-December onward have disappeared one after another from the official arrival schedule published on Nagasaki Port’s website.

What makes this situation especially serious is the speed and breadth of the ripple effects. At first it looked like a move limited to Chinese-linked operators, but the shock has spread to foreign cruise lines as well. Major Western operators such as MSC Cruises and Royal Caribbean have begun shifting some Japan calls to South Korea after a surge in cancellations by Chinese passengers. One travel agency reported that roughly 80% of cruise bookings bound for Japan by year-end had vanished, with people on the ground calling it an “unprecedented abnormal situation.”

Normally, changing cruise deployment plans takes months of coordination. This time, dramatic rerouting was pushed through in only a few weeks, with insufficient advance notice on the Japanese side—turning “Japan passing” into reality. It means Japan has, even if temporarily, lost part of its position as an East Asian cruise hub, with demand leaking to neighboring countries—an unwelcome, out-of-nowhere shock for port officials and tourism operators.

Economic Sanctions in the Name of “Safety”: The Political Mechanics Behind Travel Discouragement

Behind this domino-like wave of cancellations lies a clear political and diplomatic trigger: remarks by Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in autumn 2025, regarding the Taiwan situation. China’s government strongly denounced her Diet statements and public comments as “provocative” and “mistaken,” rapidly escalating diplomatic tension between the two countries. Beijing expressed strong displeasure through diplomatic channels and pivoted toward practical economic pressure.

In response, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued what was effectively a travel discouragement advisory in mid-November, urging citizens to exercise caution about traveling to Japan under the claim that “Japan’s public safety situation has deteriorated.” In China, government signals often translate directly into the business policies of state firms and travel agencies, and the advisory was quickly converted into concrete actions—“halt Japan tour sales” and “change routes.”

The cruise business is structurally even more susceptible to government direction than individual airline travel. Cruise passengers are often group travelers, and the operator—especially a state-linked company like Adora—can reflect policy preferences quickly and in an organized way.

What is particularly notable is that China has not used an explicit “ban,” but rather a “recommendation” framed as a “safety risk.” This allows cancellations to appear, on the surface, as voluntary decisions by private companies and consumer safety concerns—while in practice maximizing economic pressure on Japan. Adora Cruises has explained the cancellations as being “to prioritize customer safety,” carefully avoiding explicit reference to diplomacy while still aligning fully with government policy.

The collapse in demand is also spilling beyond cruises. In aviation, carriers such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines have reportedly offered full refunds on Japan routes, reinforcing that the shock is broader than a single segment. In this sense, tourism is being used as a diplomatic lever—an example of economic statecraft—and Japan’s tourism industry is confronting geopolitical risk that cannot be controlled through its own efforts. The method evokes comparisons to the de facto restrictions South Korea faced over THAAD, heightening alarm among Japan’s tourism authorities.

Cries Echo Across the Archipelago: The Reality of “Disappearance” Facing Department Stores, Hotels, and Ports

This move to “avoid Japan” is already producing serious real-economy damage—not only in port cities, but across tourist destinations and the retail sector nationwide. The pain is especially visible in department stores and luxury hotels that have depended heavily on spending by affluent Chinese visitors. With the year-end shopping season approaching, the industry is sounding alarms.

According to reports from major department store Takashimaya, duty-free sales from December 1 to 14 fell by about 9.8% year-on-year—and within that, sales to Chinese customers plunged by nearly 23.9%. Chinese shoppers had been the engine of inbound consumption, accounting for more than 40% of total duty-free sales. Their sudden “evaporation” poured cold water on a retail sector that had been recovering from the pandemic era.

The lodging industry’s stress is intensifying as well. In Kyoto, waves of cancellations from Chinese guests in early December have forced some hotels to cut room rates by roughly 10% compared with the previous year. Kansai had been maintaining firm pricing ahead of the 2025 Osaka–Kansai Expo, but losing a core customer segment disrupted the supply–demand balance and is reigniting price competition. One Kyoto hotel operator warned: “We lowered room rates for the first time in a long while. If this continues through Lunar New Year, the damage to management will be immeasurable.”

Data from surveys by Osaka’s tourism authorities also indicate that 50–70% of Chinese bookings through the end of December were canceled at hotels in the prefecture—showing the impact is not local, but regional and wide-ranging.

And the blow to local economies cannot be overlooked. In ports such as Nagasaki and those in Okinawa, the disappearance of cruise calls cuts off direct revenue such as berth usage fees. It also severs the entire local supply chain built around disembarking passengers—bus operators, guides, souvenir shops, restaurants, and more. In areas like Shizuoka—part of the Golden Route—where the share of Chinese hotel guests can reach 45%, reliance is high and the shock is correspondingly severe.

Some estimates suggest that the drop in tourism could reduce Japan’s tourism revenue by as much as ¥2.2 trillion (about USD 14.2 billion) annually, potentially shaving 0.36% off real GDP. The opportunity losses from wasted inventory and staffing preparations are enormous and could accelerate the weakening of regional economies.

Redrawing Asia’s Tourism Map: The Shift to Korea—and Japan’s “De-China Dependence” Strategy

This episode has once again exposed Japan tourism’s structural vulnerability—dependence on the China market—but it is also catalyzing a rewrite of Asia’s tourism map. South Korea and Southeast Asia, chosen as alternatives by Adora Cruises, are benefiting from this “windfall.”

In particular, Jeju and Busan in South Korea suddenly absorbed thousands of travelers who had been expected to visit Japan. The market has reacted strongly: travel-related stocks (such as those linked to Lotte Tour Development) reportedly jumped by more than 20%, as investors welcomed the “return of Chinese tourists.” Flight searches to South Korea have also surged, highlighting how Northeast Asia’s tourism flows have shifted dramatically in the short term.

Over the longer term, the rerouting of cruise ships could encourage improvements in port infrastructure and tourism branding in South Korea and Southeast Asia—creating stronger competitors and raising the risk that “Japan passing” becomes entrenched. Once routes and travel-agency package products are changed, they do not necessarily revert quickly even if political tension eases. Industry voices warn that if confrontation drags on, new cruise capacity could concentrate in ports in South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, while Japanese ports risk losing share on a more permanent basis.

Yet this crisis can also be interpreted as an opportunity for Japan to pursue a qualitative shift in its tourism model. In a December 17 press conference, Prime Minister Takaichi said Japan would “strengthen promotional efforts to attract visitors from diverse countries,” signaling a policy direction toward reducing reliance on any single market. In fact, tourism data suggests arrivals from the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan remain on an upward trend, partially offsetting weakness in the China market.

At the corporate level, retailers such as Sogo & Seibu are also beginning to shift advertising targets from China toward Southeast Asia and Western markets. For Japan to remain a destination of choice, it will need to offer not only affordability and convenience, but also higher-value, distinctive tourism content resilient to geopolitical waves. Heading into 2026, Japan’s tourism industry will be forced into new navigation under the heavy challenges of “de-China dependence” and risk diversification.