September 22: The Starting Gun for the Battle to Decide Japan’s “Next”

On September 22, 2025, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formally announced the leadership election to choose a successor to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who declared his resignation on September 7. This announcement signaled far more than a mere party leadership contest: it formally launched a fight drawing intense domestic and international scrutiny, one that will shape Japan’s political stability and future direction. The reason is simple—this election is being held amid what may be the greatest “existential crisis” in the LDP’s nearly 70-year history.

This precarious situation was set by the “negative legacy” of the Ishiba administration. Ishiba suffered consecutive defeats in two national elections—the October 2024 House of Representatives race and the July 2025 House of Councillors race. In particular, the historic setback in the upper-house election left the ruling bloc without a majority in both chambers even while maintaining the coalition framework with Komeito that had existed since 1999. Facing what amounted to a “de facto recall” within the party, Ishiba was forced to step down.

More serious still were the party-rocking “political funds scandal” and failure to address the “cost-of-living crisis,” which continued to batter household budgets. Successive election losses and scandals melted the LDP’s once-solid support base, plunging the party into what can fairly be called a state of “despair.”

The September 22 announcement became the first official venue for presenting a path out of this “despair” to the public. Whoever wins this leadership race will not merely head the party; unless the LDP falls from power, the new leader will also become Japan’s next prime minister—bearing two heavy responsibilities at once: an internal “refounding” of the party and a response to a daunting slate of domestic and international challenges. Can the LDP be rebuilt and regain public trust, or will it lose further cohesion amid turmoil? From this day until the October 4 ballot, the candidates’ words and policies will be examined closely across the nation.

“Livelihood” or “Ideology”?: Shinjiro Koizumi vs. Sanae Takaichi

With the September 22 announcement, the battle among would-be leaders for Japan’s “next face” moved into full swing. Several candidates entered the race, but in practice the contest coalesced around two contrasting figures: Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (44), who campaigned on “defending people’s livelihoods,” and former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi (64), a conservative heavyweight emphasizing the nation’s “foundational ideals.”

Their face-off symbolized the LDP’s current dilemma: responding to the public’s anxiety over living costs while shoring up the party’s traditional base.

Koizumi—the son of the late former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi—stands out in the party for his name recognition and communication skills. He framed inflation—the problem the Ishiba administration never solved—as the central political issue. His slogan: “Rebuild the party by listening anew to the people and facing their anxieties.” Drawing on his record as agriculture minister, including tackling surging rice prices, he mapped a practical, livelihood-first course focused on boosting disposable income.

Takaichi, by contrast, has built a firm position as a conservative standard-bearer within the LDP. Closely aligned ideologically with the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and known for a hard line on China, she argues the LDP’s crisis stems not merely from economic missteps but from shaken conservative principles and national vision. Leaning on her experience as Minister for Economic Security, she called for restoring the nation’s “strength,” a message resonant with the party’s traditional conservative base.

As one U.S. think-tank researcher noted, the LDP lost elections under the “moderate” Ishiba—instilling a strong sense within the party that a moderate/centrist course cannot revive it. Hence the leadership race took shape as a struggle over the party’s soul: whether to regain support outside the party via Koizumi’s “practical (livelihood)” approach, or to rebuild internal unity via Takaichi’s “ideological (conservative) restoration.”

Policy Frontlines: Gasoline Tax, Income Tax, and Party Reform

The announcement fired the starting shot for concrete policy debate. On the issue most directly affecting daily life—countering inflation—their platforms presented clear contrasts and became the campaign’s central focus.

Koizumi’s economic measures emphasized immediacy and specificity. First on his list was the swift abolition of the provisional gasoline surtax—an easily understood “painkiller” for households and logistics firms squeezed by fuel costs and emblematic of his pledge to “face people’s anxieties.”

He also advanced structural relief beyond one-off cash payments by urging an “income tax overhaul,” specifically an inflation-indexing mechanism that would automatically adjust deductions and other parameters with price and wage rises. The aim is to halt the “silent tax hike” that erodes take-home pay when prices climb, thereby directly lifting disposable incomes.

Takaichi, for her part, proposed her own economic agenda centered on introducing a “refundable tax credit.” This combines tax reductions with cash payments exceeding the credit amount for low-income earners—strengthening redistribution.

Notably, Takaichi also pledged to abolish the provisional gasoline surtax, signaling that she was attentive not only to conservative ideology but also to households struggling with inflation. By adopting a policy often associated with the opposition (refundable credits), she sought to allay internal concerns that a hard-line stance would complicate coordination with other parties (particularly coalition partner Komeito).

Alongside economic policy, both candidates stressed a “root-and-branch party reboot.” Restoring trust after the political funds scandal makes transparency and governance reform an urgent, non-negotiable task, and both pledged seriousness about party reform. From the day of the announcement, a fierce debate began over how these promises would resonate with citizens and party members.

A Thorny Road: A “Minority Government” PM Under the World’s Gaze

Whoever wins the LDP race launched on September 22 is fated to face exceptionally difficult governing conditions. Even if the LDP–Komeito coalition is maintained, the new leader chosen on October 4 will head a “minority government” lacking a majority in both houses.

This structural fragility gravely undermines Japan’s political stability, and the international community is watching this “opacity” with caution.

Soon after Ishiba firmed up his intent to resign, Bloomberg warned that “for the weeks until a successor is chosen, Japanese politics will become opaque.” The worry goes beyond a short-term power vacuum: repeated election defeats and internal turmoil raise doubts about Japan’s ability to provide stable leadership, while a shaky base could risk new economic frictions with the U.S. and hamper security coordination.

Concern is even more immediate among Asian neighbors. In particular, frontrunner Sanae Takaichi’s political stance has heightened alert levels in China and South Korea. China’s Party-affiliated Global Times connected the upper-house results with political turbulence and voiced concern that Japan is moving toward “greater political and military weight.” If the hawkish Takaichi becomes prime minister, it could revive Abe-era ideology and inject new tensions into otherwise stable Japan–China ties.

South Korea’s worries are sharper still. Major outlets reported that Ishiba’s departure “will likely push Japan–ROK relations into an even tougher phase.” One Korean government official assessed that the next government—especially under Takaichi—“could take on a more conservative character than now,” prompting “careful monitoring” on the assumption that relations may cool again, notably over historical issues.

The September 22 announcement thus began an election asking whether Japan will choose “stability of livelihoods” or “ideological purification.” Yet whoever prevails will face a twisted Diet that saps policy execution at home and a wary, watchful world abroad. How the new leader navigates this thorny path will be tested rigorously.