The Day Electricity Costs Shift from ‘Business Expense’ to ‘Business Risk’ — Structural Changes Indicated by Texas Data Center Shutdowns, SpaceX’s AI Transition, and Tesla’s Battery Purchases

Can Your Company Survive a 50,000 Yen Increase in Monthly Electricity Costs?

This is not a hypothetical scenario. What is happening in Texas, USA, could potentially hit the electricity bills of small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan in a few years.

Texas has effectively halted new connections for data centers. SpaceX is transforming from a rocket company into an AI infrastructure provider. Tesla is purchasing over $300 million worth of battery storage.

These three news items may seem unrelated, but they are connected by a single thread: the arrival of an era where AI consumes electricity at an unprecedented rate.

This structural change signifies a turning point for local small and medium-sized enterprises, where “electricity costs shift from being a business expense to a business risk.”

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Why Texas Has Started Saying ‘No’ to Data Centers

For many years, Texas was a model state for attracting data centers. With zero corporate taxes, relaxed regulations, vast land, and cheap electricity, major companies like Meta, Google, and Amazon built massive facilities, making Texas one of the leading data center hubs in the United States.

However, in 2025, Governor Greg Abbott changed course. A strict auditing process was introduced for new data center connections to the power grid, effectively making it difficult to establish new data centers.

Why? Because there is not enough electricity.

The power grid in Texas collapsed during the severe cold wave in 2021, leading to hundreds of deaths. With that memory still fresh, the rush to build data centers driven by AI demand began to further strain the power grid. According to forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the electricity demand from data centers alone is expected to match the current residential electricity consumption of the entire state by 2030.

Electricity for residents or electricity for AI? The state government chose the residents. This is a reasonable decision.

However, this decision triggers a chain reaction. If data centers cannot be built in Texas, companies will look elsewhere. The battle for electricity will spread across the United States and the world. If the supply-demand balance of electricity is disrupted, electricity costs will rise — not gradually, but structurally.

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SpaceX is Becoming an AI Company — What This Means

You might think, “Isn’t SpaceX a rocket company?” It is no longer just that.

In the most recent quarter, SpaceX’s AI-related revenue reportedly reached $2.6 billion, tripling year-on-year. What they are doing is providing computing resources to AI companies like Anthropic and Google using their own data center infrastructure. In other words, they are “wholesaling AI computing power.”

Why can SpaceX do this? Because they originally had a large-scale server infrastructure and power procurement capabilities to support the Starlink satellite communication network. The power management technology developed for launching rockets can be directly repurposed for AI infrastructure.

What is noteworthy here is that the definition of an ‘AI company’ is changing. Companies that only develop AI models are not the only AI companies. Those that possess the electricity and infrastructure to run AI are becoming the “oil majors” of the AI era.

The $2.6 billion figure from SpaceX is evidence that electricity and infrastructure have become a “new resource.” And the competition for this resource will be the primary factor driving up electricity prices.

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The Significance of Tesla’s $329 Million Battery Purchase

Tesla purchased $329 million worth of Megapacks in 2025. A Megapack is a large-scale battery system produced by Tesla that can store approximately 3.9 MWh of electricity per unit.

If we do a simple calculation, this amounts to several hundred units, enough to power a small town for a few hours.

The reason Tesla is buying this many batteries is clear: to “store electricity during low-cost periods and use (or sell) it during high-cost periods” as a form of arbitrage. The more unstable electricity prices become, the more valuable battery storage becomes. In regions like Texas, where the electricity market is deregulated, peak electricity prices can soar to more than ten times the normal rate.

In other words, Tesla is trying to turn the volatility of electricity prices from a “risk” into a “profit opportunity.”

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So, What Will Happen to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan?

Now we get to the main point.

“This is just about Texas, right?” “SpaceX has nothing to do with us” — you might think. However, the electricity market is globally interconnected. The procurement price of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is determined in the international market. If electricity consumption increases worldwide due to AI demand, fuel prices will rise, and this will reflect back on electricity costs in Japan.

In fact, industrial electricity rates in Japan have risen by about 30-40% over the past five years. The unit price of high-voltage electricity (the category most small and medium-sized enterprises contract) in the Tokyo Electric Power area has increased from about 15 yen per kWh around 2020 to around 20-25 yen by 2024. A factory that used to pay 300,000 yen per month for electricity is now looking at costs of 400,000 to 450,000 yen for the same usage.

This upward trend shows no signs of stopping. In fact, it is expected to accelerate. There are three reasons for this.

1. Increased Global Electricity Consumption Due to AI Demand
According to IEA estimates, global electricity consumption by data centers is expected to double from 460 TWh in 2022 to over 1,000 TWh by 2026. Given that Japan’s total annual electricity consumption is about 900 TWh, data centers alone will consume the equivalent of Japan’s entire electricity needs.

2. Rising Renewable Energy Surcharges and Transmission Costs
In Japan, renewable energy surcharges are also on the rise, with the rate expected to reach 3.49 yen per kWh in fiscal 2024. This will be added to electricity bills.

3. High Fuel Procurement Costs Due to Yen Depreciation
Over 70% of Japan’s electricity comes from thermal power. Since LNG and coal are reliant on imports, the cost pressure will not disappear as long as the yen remains weak.

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Three Things Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Should Do Now

“I understand that electricity costs are going up. So what should I do?”

This is likely what those who have read this far want to know.

1. Review Electricity Contracts (Cost: 0 yen, Effect: 5-15% Reduction)

The competition among new electricity providers is expected to intensify again after 2024. If you haven’t reviewed your current contract in over three years, you should start by getting quotes. For high-voltage contracts, simply switching can often result in a monthly change of several tens of thousands of yen. This is something you can start doing today.

2. Consider Self-Consumption Solar Power (Initial Cost: 1-5 million yen, Payback: 5-8 years)

The price of solar panels for rooftops has dropped by about 70% over the past decade. The cost of generating electricity is around 7-10 yen per kWh, which is less than half the price of 20-25 yen from electricity companies. With the PPA model (where the installation company owns the system and sells electricity with zero initial investment), you can start without any upfront costs.

The breakeven point will come sooner the higher electricity prices rise. In other words, waiting to think about it until after electricity prices go up is too late. The right approach is to prepare before prices rise.

3. Keep Battery Storage Installation in Mind (Industrial: 3-10 million yen)

The same logic that applies to Tesla’s purchase of Megapacks also applies to small and medium-sized enterprises. By storing electricity generated during the day with solar power in batteries, you can use it at night or during peak electricity times. This alone can help cut peak demand (maximum electricity usage) and lower basic fees.

The prices of industrial battery storage are also on a downward trend. Tesla’s Powerwall is for home use, but for industrial applications, the cost of battery storage per kWh has dropped by about 40% over the past five years. Many local governments also have subsidy programs in place.

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Electricity Costs Are No Longer a ‘Fixed Cost’

To summarize the discussion so far.

Texas stopping data centers is evidence that AI has begun to consume electricity at an unprecedented rate. SpaceX generating $2.6 billion in AI revenue is evidence that electricity infrastructure itself has become a ‘commodity.’ Tesla purchasing $300 million in battery storage is evidence that fluctuations in electricity prices have become an ‘investment opportunity.’

Until now, electricity costs were seen as a “fixed cost” that was “roughly the same amount deducted each month.” However, this is no longer the case. Electricity costs have become a variable risk linked to exchange rates, resource prices, and AI demand.

Large corporations are already taking action. They own their own power plants, install battery storage, and position electricity procurement as a “business strategy.”

I am not saying that small and medium-sized enterprises should do the same. However, it is possible to review current contracts, equipment, and cost structures with the understanding that ‘electricity costs will rise on their own, and structurally.’

The situation in Texas is not a distant problem. When electricity costs rise by 100,000 yen per month, will your profit structure be able to absorb it? This is a question that should be answered in advance.