Unhealed Wounds: What the Gunshots in Nara Left Behind

Three years have passed since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was struck down by an assassin’s bullet on July 8, 2025. Even now, people continue to visit the site of the tragedy—outside Yamato-Saidaiji Station in Nara City—offering flowers and quiet prayers in remembrance of his death. The two gunshots that rang out during his campaign speech for the House of Councillors election not only ended the life of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister but also shattered the postwar nation’s long-held belief in its own “myth of safety.” Witnesses spoke of a “loud bang,” rising smoke, and Abe collapsing—images seared into the national consciousness through repeated broadcasts.

This shocking event occurred in a country with some of the strictest gun control laws in the world. The fact that the weapon was a crude homemade gun crafted by Tetsuya Yamagami, a former member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, revealed a new and unforeseen form of violence—one that legal restrictions alone could not prevent. The attack, carried out during an election campaign, was condemned across all political lines as a “cowardly assault on free speech,” including by then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Yet alongside condemnation came harsh scrutiny of Japan’s security system. As the Nara Prefectural Police chief admitted, “It cannot be denied that there were problems in the security and protection arrangements.” The incident exposed the complacency and systemic flaws in Japan’s VIP protection protocols. Abe himself had once said, “Japan is a safe country,” but that trust was instantly shattered—leaving the nation with the burden of rethinking its entire approach to public safety.

Exposing the Hidden Depths: The Ties Between the Unification Church and Politics

At first, the assassination appeared to be an act of political terrorism. However, the motive eventually revealed a darker, deeply rooted issue within Japanese society. Yamagami’s actions were not driven by ideology but by a personal grudge—his family had been financially ruined after his mother made massive donations to the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (formerly the Unification Church). He believed Abe’s association with the group had helped expand its influence, and thus directed his anger toward him.

When this motive came to light, public and media attention swiftly turned toward the relationship between the Unification Church and Japanese politics—especially its long-standing ties with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A series of revelations exposed that numerous LDP lawmakers had connections with the group, including attendance at related events and receipt of election support, revealing deep and systemic entanglements that shocked the nation.

The scandal hit the Kishida administration hard, sending cabinet approval ratings plummeting to record lows. Initially hesitant to investigate, the government was ultimately forced to act under intense public pressure. In 2023, it took the extraordinary step of requesting a court order to dissolve the church under the Religious Corporations Act, citing its “organizational and malicious fundraising practices that seriously harm public welfare.” The church denounced the move as an “infringement of religious freedom,” and the legal battle continues to this day.

The case also highlighted the urgent need to support victims of large donation schemes. Although a relief law for victims was enacted, issues remain over asset protection and compensation, with debates on legal reforms still ongoing as of 2025. One man’s act of violence tore into a postwar taboo—the intersection of politics and religion—and irreversibly deepened the public’s distrust in government.

Legacy and Conflict: The Fate of Abenomics and Security Policy

Abe’s sudden death accelerated debates over the legacy of his vast political achievements. Foremost among them was his economic program, “Abenomics,” which aimed to end decades of deflation through the “three arrows” of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reform. Yet three years later, Japan faces the difficult task of executing an “exit strategy” from unprecedented monetary easing. Balancing market normalization with fiscal discipline remains an ongoing struggle, leaving the evaluation of Abenomics unresolved.

In contrast, Abe’s diplomatic and security legacy has only grown stronger since his death. His vision of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” and the Quad framework—linking Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India—have become central pillars of Japan’s foreign policy under successive administrations. The transformation in national security policy has been dramatic. In late 2022, Japan’s cabinet approved increases in defense spending to 2% of GDP and the acquisition of “counterstrike capabilities” to neutralize enemy missile sites—goals Abe had long advocated but never achieved during his lifetime. Ironically, his death lowered political resistance to such sweeping changes.

In 2025, one of the biggest debates in the National Diet concerns how to finance this surge in defense spending, with tax hikes a central point of contention. Meanwhile, Abe’s lifelong ambition to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution—specifically to enshrine the Self-Defense Forces—remains a key policy of the LDP. His vision continues to serve as a rallying banner for conservative politicians. Thus, while Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads, its security policy has evolved in continuity with Abe’s line—ensuring that his legacy lives on in modern Japan in both influence and contradiction.

A Changing Society: Overcoming Division and Building a New Security Paradigm

Abe’s death laid bare the deep divisions running through Japanese society. This was most visibly expressed in the controversy surrounding his state funeral in September 2022. When the government approved the state funeral by cabinet decision, public opinion split sharply. Supporters argued that Japan should honor its longest-serving prime minister with a national tribute, while opponents criticized the vague legal basis, the Unification Church ties, and the societal divisions attributed to “Abe politics.” The debate underscored how deeply polarizing a figure Abe had been for the nation.

Behind the scenes, the aftermath of the assassination also marked the downfall of Abe’s political faction, the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai—the largest within the LDP. Without its dominant leader, the faction lost influence and ultimately collapsed amid a fundraising scandal, disbanding in 2024. This symbolized the reorganization of Japan’s conservative mainstream in the post-Abe era.

The most tangible and lasting changes, however, are visible in the realm of physical security. Learning from the tragedy, Japan’s National Police Agency conducted a complete overhaul of the “Protection Guidelines,” vastly strengthening VIP protection systems. The atmosphere of campaign speeches has changed dramatically—barriers now separate politicians from the audience, and bag checks have become routine. Japan’s once intimate election culture, where citizens could easily approach their leaders, is fading into the past.

Meanwhile, new technologies such as AI-based threat detection and 3D mapping are being employed to enhance security planning. Beyond physical safety, the tragedy also prompted reflection on broader “human security.” Recognizing that Yamagami’s isolation and social alienation may have contributed to his crime, the government enacted the “Loneliness and Social Isolation Countermeasures Act” to build stronger social support systems.

Three years after the gunshots in Nara, Japan continues to walk a long and difficult path—reexamining the meaning of “safety” in all its dimensions: physical protection, political transparency, and social solidarity.